 | WEEKLY EDITION Friday, November 6, 2026 Edition No. 2 |
Is the Market Trying to Find Its Floor?
Welcome Back What a week to cover: an election, the Dow’s biggest one-day gain of the year, and then the worst day of 2026 for all three indexes. The short version is below, with the numbers that matter and what our record says about weeks like this. New to Trifecta? The Learn hub has 11 short guides that explain the method in plain English. Two things in the works: a full user guide with short videos members have asked for, and Ask Trifecta — an assistant we are scoping now that answers questions about the site and the method in real time. Educational only, and it never gives advice on a specific stock. |
Market Backdrop
This Week in Review Midterm elections on Tuesday, and Democrats swept Congress. The session itself whipsawed — a range of about 3.4% on the day — dipping early, then ripping into the close. Wednesday was the market’s best day in three months. The Dow jumped about 3% (+1,569 points, its biggest one-day gain of the year), the S&P 500 rose 1.6% and the Nasdaq 1.4%, as political uncertainty eased. Then it all reversed. A chip and data-center selloff (the semiconductor index fell 12.25%; Qualcomm dropped sharply after weak results), reports that the incoming Congress may slow data-center construction, and renewed expectations of Fed rate hikes combined into the S&P 500’s and the Nasdaq’s worst day of 2026: the S&P fell −4.36% to 7,353.73, and the Nasdaq fell −5.52%, closing in correction territory, 11.9% below its October 6 record. The Dow gave back more than Wednesday’s entire gain. The VIX jumped 69.7% to 28.18 — its biggest one-day rise since April 2025. Friday offered a bounce, and the bounce faded. The Nasdaq rose +1.09% and the Russell 2000 +0.95%, while the Dow slipped −0.46%. The S&P 500 added +0.31% to 7,376.86 — but it had traded as high as 7,444 in the morning and closed near the low of its day’s range. The VIX eased 8.9% to 25.67, still well above last Friday’s 19.42. A rally the close could not keep does not give confidence that a market floor is in place. The rollover still has to resolve. |
The Backdrop: A Market 5–10% off Its Highs Thursday’s drop left the S&P 500 about 6% below the record close it set on October 6, which moves Trifecta’s market backdrop into the 5–10% drawdown band. We had already raised a caution on this pattern in Edition 1 — the S&P 500 had gone 24 days from its October 6 peak without making a new high — and with the oversold signals stacking up over the past two months, the signs of a market rollover were evident. What does the 5–10% drawdown band mean for our signals? Across the full record, signals confirmed while SPY sat 5–10% off its highs finished positive at 90 days 67.0% of the time, with a mean gain of +9.4% (n=2,447) — a bit better than the 63.3% base rate across all backdrops. A pullback of this size, on its own, has not been a bad backdrop for the method. There is a caution attached to this particular pullback, though. SPY has also reached its 200-day average just 30 days after that record high — a “fresh break,” representing the weakest group signals in our record (early 2022: 45% positive at 90 days, about flat on average). Beyond our own record, that setup has appeared 24 times since 1995: The shallow dips all cleared within about 45 sessions; of the episodes that persisted 45 sessions or more, 6 of 7 became bear markets. It marks the setup, not the outcome. |
The Three Percent Question Last week we talked about the S&P 500’s 2% down days. This week we got our first down day of greater than 3%. The S&P 500 closed −4.36% on Thursday — the worst day of 2026, and the worst single day since April 2025. S&P 500 daily closes, Jan–Nov 2026. Marked: the year’s closes down 2% or more. Thursday Nov 5 (−4.4%) was the first to break 3%. |
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Why Our Record Starts in 2022 — And What Happened When We Tested It Back to 2018 Every statistic on Trifecta Signals — the 749 confirmed group signals, the 75.0% that gained at least 10% within 180 days of confirmation — is measured on a record that begins in January 2022. Members sometimes ask why. The honest answer is practical, not flattering: January 2022 is where our complete point-in-time dataset begins — every signal graded against the prices and filings that existed on the day it fired, nothing reconstructed after the fact. Fair question, though: is the method just a creature of the post-2022 market? We ran the identical rules back through 2018–2021 — the late-2018 selloff, the COVID crash, and the long recovery. The extension covered 11,827 Early Signals, of which 7,186 confirmed and 411 landed in the three oversold groups.
 The comparison, era by era. Washout — the largest group — was nearly identical across the two eras: 75.2% then, 75.4% now. The best results in both eras came from the same place: signals that confirmed at the turn out of a deep drawdown — while the S&P 500 was still at least 20% below its high, which in practice means right at the turn out of the COVID crash and in October 2022, the final month of the 2022 bear. Those gained +10% within 180 days 94% of the time in the backtest (35 signals) and 89% on the published record (72 signals), against roughly 72% and 69% in calmer markets. And the honest counterweight: the 2022 bear was the method’s hardest stretch, and it weathered the storm — seven in ten group signals confirmed during it still gained +10% within 180 days, even though the median bear-market signal was roughly flat (−0.7%) at the 180-day mark. The method is built to catch the turn, not to make a bear market painless. The published record still starts in January 2022. But the method behind it is not a 2022 story. |
Spotlight
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Popular Stocks in the Early Stage These Early Signals are still awaiting confirmation — and they’re the ones members have been looking up most. If a stock confirms, it joins the track record; if the window closes quietly, it drops off this list. 72 stocks are in the Early stage in total, based on Thursday’s close (Nov 5). GOOD, on day 14, is closest to the end of its window. See the full list under “Stocks Awaiting Signal Confirmation” on the Screener. |
Your Followed Stocks This section is personal in the sent edition — it tracks the stocks you follow, with their latest signal status and a flag the moment one of them gets a fresh Early Signal. Not following any yet? Open any stock’s page and tap + Follow — your Watchlist does the rest. |
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How Trifecta works, in one line: an Early Signal flags an oversold stock starting to turn; a signal is Confirmed when follow-through arrives inside a short window; only confirmed signals count on the track record, which starts in January 2022 and grades every signal, win or lose. The 2018–2021 figures in this edition are backtested with the identical rules. You’re receiving the Weekly Edition because you opted in on trifectasignals.com. Educational content only — not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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